Video Poker Odds & Return to Player
Video poker is a long-standing casino game that has gained much popularity among Australian players. One of the reasons for its popularity is the decent odds it features. In comparison to other games, video poker allows players to calculate their chance of winning. Players also have full control over their winnings.
In this guide, we look at the various video poker games and the odds for each. Furthermore, we look at the probability of winning, house edge, and the odds of landing the various video poker hands.
Calculating Video Poker Odds
Video poker games are played with 52 cards, with some exceptions using 53 cards. As the game’s base odds, you will have a 1 in 52 chance of getting a particular card. You also have a 1 in 13 chance of getting a particular number and 1 in 4 chance of getting a specific suit.
With the above, you can use these odds to calculate the expectant return of a video poker game. Calculating the odds at first may seem complicated, but it is fairly easy. The process also involves calculating the house edge, which can be done as follows:
- List all of the possible outcomes of the video poker game you are playing.
- Use base calculation of getting the probability of getting the cards you need.
- Add the possible results with the probability of each outcome and the probability of getting any particular card.
Introductory Deal Odds
Most players know that a Royal Flush or other big stake winning hand happens just once every couple of arrangements, as the more grounded, higher-positioning video poker hands are more normal than the lesser blends. Generally, this is right. The chances of hitting a particular winning hand change contingent upon the video poker game you’re playing. Notwithstanding, the chances are known in the most famous changes, and players can utilize them to pick the best game or settle on educated choices.
The shots at handling a Royal Flush during the initial attract a straightforward video poker game with 52 cards are 1 of every 649,740. It’s 1 of every 72,193 for a Straight Flush and 1 out of 4,165 for Four of a Kind. In 694 games, the player will get a Full House with the primary cards managed, while the chances of getting a Flush are 509 to 1, 255 to 1, 47 to 1 for Three of a Kind, 21 to 1 for Two Pairs, and 7.69 to 1 for Jacks or Better. Furthermore, the chances of getting any pair (from the twos to the tens) are 2.37 to 1.
These measurements show that you will gather any pair of cards generally 50% of the time when playing. Furthermore, with the even payout of any Jacks or Better game, you are likely to get your wager amount back every 7 to 8 hands. Obviously, these figures are midpoints; you shouldn’t expect a couple of Sevens each a few arrangements. Indeed, even with 20 hands, you probably won’t get them. Then again, the RNG may give you a Four of a Kind on your underlying stake.
Hand | Odds |
Royal Flush | 649,740 to 1 |
Straight Flush | 72,193 to 1 |
Four of a Kind | 4,165 to 1 |
Full House | 694 to 1 |
Flush | 509 to 1 |
Straight | 255 to 1 |
Three of a kind | 47 to 1 |
Two Pairs | 21 to 1 |
Pair J, Q, K or A | 7.69 to 1 |
Chances on the Draw
After the player pick which cards to keep and which cards to dispose of, the odds shift drastically. This is additionally dependent upon the cards the individual is holding. For instance, on the off chance that you have four cards in a Royal Flush and need one more to finish it, your shots at finishing it are 47 to 1. You have a 24 to 1 shot at transforming a Three of a Kind into a Four of Kind and a 16 to 1 shot at transforming a Full House into a Full House. There are extremely numerous conceivable outcomes to specify or list. Yet, any genuine player may do their own exploration and look into data in video poker guides, system books, or even on the web.
Video Poker Games House Edge
Game | Five credit bet | One to four credit bet | ||
Return rate | House edge | Return rate | House edge | |
Jacks or Better (9/5) | 98.449% | 1.551% | 97.080% | 2.920% |
Jacks or Better (8/6) | 98.392% | 1.608% | 97.020% | 2.980% |
Jacks or Better (8/5) | 97.298% | 2.702% | 95.929% | 4.071% |
Jacks or Better (7/5) | 96.147% | 3.853% | 94.778% | 5.222% |
Jacks or Better (6/5) | 94.996% | 5.004% | 93.627% | 6.373% |
Deuces Wild (full pay) | 100.762% | -0.762% | 99.457% | 0.543% |
Deuces Wild (regular pay) | 99.569% | 0.431% | 98.303% | 1.697% |
Double Bonus (10/7) | 100.172% | -0.172% | 99.058% | 0.942% |
Double Double Bonus (10/6) | 100.067% | -0.067% | 98.718% | 1.282% |
Video Poker RTP and Expected Value
When it comes to choosing video poker machines, players tend to go for the ones with the highest RTP rates. However, the higher the RTP does not always mean a higher return. What players also need to understand is that the RTP is the expected payout over a long period. If a video poker machine has an RTP of 99.6%, you can’t get to get $99.60 back if you wager $100 in just a few spins. However, you can use the RTP to calculate the expected return and value of each game.
Using a close to perfect strategy, you can get your maximum bet back if the video poker game has an expected return of 100%. The expected return for a $400 bet on a Deuces Wild with an RTP of 100.76% and full payouts is $403.04. If a player wagers $400 on this game and plays for a long time, they can expect to get $3.04 back for every $400 bet. On the other hand, video poker games with an RTP lower than 100% will eventually generate losses. When playing multi-hand 9/6 Double Double Bonus Poker with an RTP of 98.98%, the player would leave with $395.92 after wagering $400. In theory, the loss will be $4.08 but should only be considered as an average.
Expected Value Calculation
As a further example, one can calculate the expected value for each game, which is the average amount a player can expect to win after playing for a certain period of time. On average, experienced gamblers place 650 bets per hour. A total bet has to be taken into account when estimating the hourly wager of such players. With some video poker games, the denomination of the coins is lower, which results in a smaller total wager. Furthermore, it is also important to consider how many hands can be played simultaneously on a machine, as most lower denominations are multi-hand or power video poker games.
So, if the player bets five coins at $0.25 for each coin, the total wager for each hand is $1.25. When one assumes that a player plays 650 hands per hour, it is simply a matter of multiplying $1.25 by 650 to estimate the amount spent on one hour’s activity – $812.5. This sum can be multiplied by 100.76 to determine the casino return on full pay Deuces Wild. The expected return of $818,675 is the result of playing for one hour. We find a difference of $6.175 between it and our initial investment of $812.5. Deuces Wild is expected to provide a value of $6.18 for an hour of play.
Expected Value Calculation – 10/7 Double Bonus Poker
In this next section, we will calculate the expected value of 10/7 Double Bonus Poker. The game has an RTP of 100.17%. Playing this game should result in lower earnings than betting on a full pay Deuces Wild. Interesting enough, it’s not true. We can maximize our winnings by betting the maximum amount of coins and coins. So let’s take a $5.00 bet and multiply it by 5 (the maximum number of coins) to get a bet of $25.00 per hand. It would cost $16,250 to play an hour of 10/7 Double Bonus video poker for $25 a hand at a rate of 650 hands per hour. A return of 100.17% on $16,250 equals $16,373.5. It is estimated that playing the game for one hour will result in a difference of $123.5.
Summary of Expected Value vs RTP
By lowering the RTP percentage, the player is more likely to win. Because of this, Australian players should always consider the total bets they want to play before playing any real money video poker game. In general, games with the highest expected value should be chosen, not necessarily the highest expected return.